Estimated Energy Consumption
Based on the latest official energy statistics from the United States, data compiled by its Energy Information Administration shows robust growth in world energy use from the year 2004 up to 2030. The total world energy consumption, based on certain assumptions, is projected to increase by 57% for the same period. From a base figure of 447 quadrillion Btu (1 British thermal unit=1,055 joules of energy) in 2004, it will rise to 559 quadrillion Btu by 2015 and then increase further to 702 quadrillion Btu by 2030. British thermal unit (BTU) is used as a measure of the “heat value” or energy content of fuels. Thus, a high-grade coal has more Btu than a lower-quality type of coal. It is just used as a rough measure of comparability between various energy types.
Energy Consumption chart
Generally, there is a direct correlation between energy use and economic growth. Economists call this relationship as “energy intensity” – the amount of energy used to produce a unit of gross domestic product (GDP). The lower the ratio, then the better. It means the country is more efficient in producing one US dollar of GDP. In most of the developed countries (member-countries of the OECD or the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), they have a high energy consumption per capita because of high standards of living they have attained. They also have high GDP but the actual growth in their respective GDP is slower. In the other non-OECD countries, the correlation between energy use and economic growth is very evident and direct. Their emerging economies require a lot of energy use to spur economic growth and consequently, their energy intensity is also very high. Much of their energy growth comes from consumers buying durables such as air-conditioning units, rice cookers, water heaters, and the increased use of automobiles due to rising incomes. Much of this energy use growth will come from Asia primarily China and India where both countries have strong population growths and also fast-growing economies. In fact, these two countries alone account for more than half (65%) of energy demand growth in the non-OECD region.
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